We’re around the mid-season point in the Premier League, so it’s time for some predictions. First, a quick look back at the previous edition. One year ago I said:

I expect Arsenal to finish with close to 90 points, City 85+, and Liverpool at least 84. Their chances to overtake City and Arsenal will depend on a lot of factors, including the European competitions for all the 3 teams, injuries, fatigue or simply luck. Either way, I think it will be an exciting second half of the season and a memorable title race.

I got Arsenal absolutely right (they finished with 89 points), and City did finish with 85+ points (92). However, I did not expect City to improve that much in the second half of the season, nor Liverpool to drop out of the title race so early (they finished with 82 points, less than the 84+ predicted). No memorable title race, just City winning game after game and Arsenal getting agonisingly close (just as Liverpool did a couple of times in the recent seasons).

Now, time to look at this season. At the moment, the PL table looks like this:

The bookmakers give the following odds:

And putting this into percentages and forecast number of points:

My predictions

Man City (34p after 20 games, maximum possible 88): surely their drop of form won’t last for the whole season. Their second half of last season was almost perfect, with 16 wins, 2 draws and no defeats (2.77 points per game). Their first half of the season averaged 1.7 ppg, and for the second half, while I’m pretty sure they won’t reach 2.77 again, something around 2.5 ppg won’t be unreasonable. I expect a total of around 80 points (maximum possible 88) and to finish comfortably inside Top 4.

Forest (40p), Chelsea (36p) and Newcastle (35p) will likely fight for the 4th place, even though there’s a small chance there will be a CL prize for the 5th place as well. If I had to pick one, it would probably be Forest. Not only they are 4-5 points ahead of the two, but they have no European games (unlike Chelsea), no EFL games (unlike Newcastle), and no pressure (unlike both Chelsea and Newcastle). They are in a very good shape and I see them finishing with 75+ points. Of course, it could all collapse in a few games, and qualifying for CL might be a ‘careful what you wish for‘-situation, but what a story that might be!

So back to the title race now, which I expect to be an affair between Liverpool and Arsenal.

Arsenal (40p after 20 games, maximum possible 94) are top of the 2024 PL calendar year table with 85 points (from 36 games). They of course had an excellent second half of last season, with only one loss and one draw in the last 18 games. A similar return this season would see them finish with 89 points (the same as last season). I would not be surprised if this happens; even if you throw in a couple of more draws (so 14-3-1 instead of 16-1-1) and they would still reach 85 points.

Which leaves us with Liverpool, who have 46 points after 19 games (maximum possible 103p). Keep the same pace and they will finish with 92 points, which virtually guarantees them winning the league. Repeat the second half of last season (40p in 19 games) and they will finish with 86 points, which gets them into Arsenal’s territory. The bookmakers and stat guys say that the first scenario is much more likely: Liverpool are the big favourites this season.

They have, indeed, a 6 points advantage and a game in hand; yet, I don’t see them finishing top. Here’s why.

It might look all good from the outside, but Liverpool are quite fragile and everything could collapse in a few games, just as it did at the end of the last season. Here are some of the issues at the moment:

• the unwanted distraction of renewing the contracts of Salah, Virgil and Trent. The club should have planned in advance and avoided this situation. Among the three, I believe there’s only a small chance they will keep Virgil, but the whole situation is far from ideal and can have an impact on the pitch (as it recently happened with Trent in the 2-2 draw against Man United).

• the defensive situation. At the moment, Liverpool have Virgil (who could be gone in the summer), Konate and Gomez (who statistically miss a few months each season) and the young Quansah. Virgil and Konate are obviusly the first choice pairing, but, with Gomez out until February the options are very limited (yes, Endo can play in defence, but he is also expected to cover for Gravenberch).

• a smaller problem (which could turn into a bigger one) is the fullback situation. On the right, Trent had his head turned by Madrid and it starts to show, while Bradley has had very limited game time due to a long-term injury. On the left, Robertson is already showing his age, and Tsimikas doesn’t seem to offer enough to displace Robertson.

There’s no sign that any of the above problems have a short-term solution. On the contrary, things could get worse if Trent leaves at the end of January or any of the three players signs a pre-contract with another club.

On top of all that, I estimate that one or two key injuries could seriously derail Liverpool’s season. I’m talking about Virgil (see the 2020/21 season; Liverpool will play Everton at least twice by May), Gravenberch (who started almost every game until now) and Salah (who is simply irreplaceable at the moment). Even if these key players end the season uninjured, there is a correlation between the number of injuries and the number of dropped points.

And for good measure, all the 50-50 refereeing decisions are likely to go against Liverpool. Last season we witnessed some astonishing moments, culminating with a perfectly valid Liverpool goal incorrectly ruled out due to VAR miscommunication. As we saw in the case of David Coote, the PL referees do have biases, and, without getting into conspiracy theories, the scousers don’t seem to be anyone’s favourites.

All this to say – I am anticipating a scenario where the 6 points advantage gradually decreases and then goes away. After three seasons chasing (and narrowly missing) the title, I’m sure that Arsenal will be right there waiting.

In the next few weeks, Liverpool play 3 out of their 4 PL game away: Forest (3rd place), Brentford (11th), Bournemouth (7th). I anticipate them loosing points in at least two of these 4 games. Then, the last five games of the season look very difficult:

In conclusion, I expect:

• Arsenal to win the league with 85+ points
• Liverpool and City to finish with 80-85 points
• Forest to make it into Top 4 with around 75 points

PS: And of course, I expect Madrid to win the Champions League, but don’t we all do?

Since 1st of June 2024, Arne Slot is the new head coach of Liverpool. He follows Jurgen Klopp, who won all the possible trophies with Liverpool in the last eight years. Unlike Klopp in 2016 (who won the Bundesliga twice and played a Champions League final), the dutchman comes with a relatively modest background, winning the Dutch league and playing the inaugural Conference League final. Stepping into big shoes is an understatement.

Here’s what Ted Lasso had to say about it:

Well, folks, I reckon Liverpool just hit the jackpot! Slot’s joining the club and it’s like finding the last piece of a jigsaw puzzle under the couch cushions – just the perfect fit. He’s gonna slide right into place, bringing that fresh energy and a whole lot of heart. Now, I know what you’re thinking – what’s in a name, right? But let me tell you, this guy’s a perfect fit, like peanut butter and jelly or a well-worn pair of boots. Coach Slot’s got a knack for finding just the right place for everyone, and I mean everyone. We’re talking about a new era here, so roll out the welcome mat, break out the biscuits, and get ready to see some real magic on the field. We’re in for a heck of a ride with Slot at the helm, folks! 

Ted Lasso, interviewed by ChatGPT

Slot inherits a structure and a squad that, like the Artificial Intelligence nowadays, has a huge potential, plenty of opportunities but also comes with considerable risks.

Let’s take these one by one.

Potential

The structure around the first team is now radically different. Michael Edwards is back, and so is Julian Ward. Slot will certainly be involved in recruitment, but the decision-making process will now also involve Edwards, Ward and the newly recruited sporting director Richard Hughes.
The squad also looks much improved compared to what Klopp inherited back in 2016. It is now full of young talent – Trent, Quansah, Kelleher, Elliott, Bradley, Gravenberch to name a few, with others like Carvalho or Morton coming back from loans. There are established leaders – Alisson, Virgil or Salah – and others who clearly have the potential to become world-class players: MacAllister, Szoboszlai or Diaz. In particular, there is a lot of excitment at the prospect of MacAllister playing in a more advanced role and Nuñez finding his rhythm.
The Kirkby training center was recently modernized, the stadium was also upgraded to over 61.000 places and Anfield remains one of the most difficult places to play for all the teams.

Opportunities

With all this structure in place, there is a clear opportunity for Slot’s Liverpool to match, if not exceed Klopp’s performance. Surely he will be given time, and he also has the advantage that he’s not been given the job to improve on perfection: what he’s inherited is not Liverpool’s team from 2019-2020, but one making slow starts, lacking composure in the final third and having difficulties closing out the games. So there’s clearly plenty of work ahead, but Slot will have the new leadership structure in place to help him sorting it out.
There are also plenty of opportunities when it comes to developing youngsters. Liverpool’s academy is full of talent waiting to be polished, and Slot might find the next Trent, Gerrard or Owen right in the back yard.
From a financial perspective, the club is currently on a very solid foundation. Unlike other clubs, Liverpool is not forced to sell anybody and is no danger of breaching the PL’s profit and sustainability rules (with only £6M loss over the last three seasons, well below the £105M limit). This means there is an opportunity to strengthen the squad and build for the future.

Risks

Slot inherits of course also plenty of risks. As the last 4-5 seasons showed, the risk of injuries is constantly looming over Liverpool’s squad. Whether this was down to the intensity and demands of Klopp’s training, the quality of the medical department or simply bad luck – we will probably never know. But Slot will have a fresh start, and perhaps, together with the new medical department, he will find a way to improve the players availability.
There are also three important contracts that Slot needs to sort out: Trent, Virgil and Salah. Granted, this is more of a job for Edwards and Ward, but this will require coordinated input from all the leadership roles, including Slot. Trent and Virgil, in particular, are players that Liverpool simply cannot afford to lose.
Slot will also need to find a way to improve Nuñez, who will be desperate to prove that he still has a place in the Liverpool starting XI. There might be players looking for a new challenge, such as Kelleher or Diaz – and Slot will have to deal with that too in his first weeks at the club.
One of the key risks in recent seasons was Liverpool constantly leaving themselves short in key departments. Not reacting to the defensive injury crisis in January 2021 or failing to address the glaring midfield issues back in the summer of 2022 were some of the most inexplicable mistakes. Hopefully Slot (together with Edwards & co) will find a way to address that too, with a new center back and defensive midfielder being the absolute minimum required this summer.
Game management was also one of the weak points in the last few seasons under Klopp. Slow starts and inability to get over the line – in particular against the Top 6 teams – were one of the reasons for the disappointing end of last season. Slot will have to improve this record sooner rather than later.
The supporters are one of the club key assets. I have no doubts that they will be 100% behind Arne, but the club will have to improve their communication with the supporter groups. As we saw just a few months ago, a badly managed situation – when the club announced the intention to increase the prices by 2% – created a toxic atmosphere in the stadium before the quarter final against Atalanta. More recently, the club’s intention to play home games away from Anfield shows a certain disconnection between the club and supporters, and causes an unwanted distraction for Slot.

Expectations

As I said, there won’t be many expectations for Slot in his first season. Personally I would be happy seing the start of some good football, keeping the players healthy and avoiding the mistakes of the past.

In short, make us hope.

Here is how the PL table looks like after the first half of the 2023/24 season:

On paper, Liverpool has a slightly easier second half of the season, with more games at home than away (10 vs 9) and all the newly promoted sides yet to play at Anfield. Here is the full list of 19 games, sorted by degree of difficulty:

10 home games:

• 5 quite winnable: the 3 newly promoted, Palace, Wolves
• 2 difficult, but winnable: Newcastle, Chelsea
• 2 difficult: Brighton, Spurs
• 1 very difficult: City

9 away games:

• 2 difficult: Arsenal, Villa
• 2 traditionally tricky: United, Everton
• 3 London trips: Fulham, West Ham, Brentford
• 2 against teams with low expectations, but potentially banana peels: Bournemouth, Nottingham

Below I will look into the prediction and the schedule, but first, a few assumptions:

1. Liverpool will not be involved in the January transfer market (in or out). A safe assumption looking at the recent years, and also confirmed by a few trustable journalists. There is a chance that Fabio Carvalho might come back from his Leipzig loan, albeit he might be moved on to another team, perhaps in the PL.
2. Injuries: while Matip, Tsimikas and Bajcetic are likely out for the season, I think it’s safe to assume that MacAllister will be back from his injury in early January, while Robertson and Thiago will become available later in February. Also, I will assume that no other long term injuries will occur. As we all know, they quite be quite damaging in Liverpool’s case, especially for the key players (Alisson, Virgil, Trent, Mo).
3. I will also assume that Liverpool are out of the FA Cup on 7th of January. I think it’s a reasonable assumption given the difficulty of the fixture (playing Arsenal away) and the fact that Liverpool is more likely to focus on the EFL semifinal against Fulham in a period where they will be without their main goalscorer, any of their left full backs and the only experienced number 6.

What are the odds?
At this point in time, Opta (British sports analytics company) give City as favourites to win the title (55%), then Liverpool (27%) and Arsenal (15%).
Betting companies give the following odds: 1.8 to City, 3.5 to Liverpool, 5 to Arsenal (how to read this: bet 10 EUR on City, win 18; bet 10 EUR on Liverpool, win 35).

I also think there will be a three way race, but I think it will be quite a tight one, with all the 3 teams finishing above the 80 points mark. Unlike the betting and analytics companies, I believe Arsenal are the favourites to win it this year. They have a very good team which only improved after finishing last season with 84 points, they are more experienced and have their fixtures nicely spread out in the second half of the season. They do play 10 out of 19 games away and have a few difficult away fixtures (City, United, Tottenham), but I believe that they can finish close to 90 points. The recent loss against West Ham was a freak occurrence: from the chances they created it was more likely to score 5 than 0 goals. It will probably not happen again this season.

I expect City to improve on their 40 points half-season, as they usually do (I expect them to win their game in hand vs Brentford). But not by a large margin, for a number of reasons: the number of games they played so far and are still likely to play (would not be surprised if they reached the CL final again), the number of injuries (albeit they do have the squad depth to cope with it) and the fact that they look more fragile than last season (so far they lost 8 points from winning positions). They play more games at home than away and I expect them to finish the season with 85+ points.

What about Liverpool?
On the short term, they will be without Mo and Endo for about a month, they will need to cope without an established left full back for another 2 months and they have double legged EFL semifinal (and a potential Wembley final against Chelsea) to handle.
However, they will also restart their European season later, on 7 March, compared to City – 13 February and Arsenal 20 February.
If they keep the same pace, Liverpool will finish with 84 points, but as we seen above, I doubt that it will be enough.
I think it will all depend on the crunch period at the end of April – beginning of May.
I expect Liverpool to reach the EL quarter finals (hopefully without injuries), which means that in the second half of April they will play the 2nd leg of their EL QF and two tricky fixtures in London: Fulham (20) and West Ham (27). The second one will be interesting, with the Hammers potentially chasing an European spot (5th place might bring them CL). On the other hand, this might favour Liverpool, who had would rather play an open, basketball-like game rather than a cagey, all-the-men-behind-the-ball one.

Then, come May, Liverpool might have a tricky decisions to make: prioritize the EL semi-finals (2 and 9 May) or put everything into the Spurs (H) and Villa (A) games (4 and 11 May)? If they still have a chance at the title, I expect the latter. I don’t expect Liverpool to be successful on both fronts. But I think Klopp and his senior players (Alisson, Virgil, Robertson, Trent, Mo, Gomez) deserve more than one PL title and they only need a bit of luck to win it. And of course, they could do without perfectly valid goals being ruled out by distracted referees.

In conclusion, I expect Arsenal to finish with close to 90 points, City 85+, and Liverpool at least 84. Their chances to overtake City and Arsenal will depend on a lot of factors, including the European competitions for all the 3 teams, injuries, fatigue or simply luck. Either way, I think it will be an exciting second half of the season and a memorable title race.