On the 10th of January, I made my predictions for the 2025 Premier League season: https://colorblindprogramming.com/can-liverpool-do-it-2025-edition. I plan to follow up on that prediction after each round of games.
16 January, after game week 21

Liverpool drew against Forest, one of the games I expected them to drop points (along with Brentford and Bournemouth). Arsenal took advantage and reduced the gap to 4 points. Good week for Newcastle too, while Chelsea and City both dropped points. A few notes:
- not a bad result after all for Liverpool, but another problem starts to show up, this time up front. Diaz playing as striker doesn’t work, and it looks like when Mo is having an off day, Liverpool doesn’t win.
- Quite an average night for Trent, and way below average for Robertson. Liverpool do have a full-backs issue at the moment. The sooner they figure it out, the better.
- A few words about goalkeeping: Alisson conceded from a low quality chance (0.16xG – the only half-decent chance for the home team) – but perhaps this is just a sign of the ridiculously high standards he got us used to. The Forest keeper, on the other hand, had a great night, saving a few clear cut chances. And Arsenal benefitted from a less than mediocre performance of the Spurs keeper.
Next game becomes really important for Liverpool (4 draws in the last 7 PL games): another away game at Brentford, who have impressive numbers when playing at home (7 wins 2 draws 2 losses this season). I expect a tight game but perhaps the Liverpool forwards will find their shooting boots this time and at least match the expected goals (1.99 at Forest). Arsenal play at home against Villa, their only defeat in the second half of last season.
Current odds: 83% Liverpool, 16% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.36 Liverpool, 4.33 Arsenal.
18 January, after game week 22

This feels like a massive moment in the season for Liverpool: they win in extra time at Brentford, and a couple of hours later, Arsenal drop points at home against Villa, after leading 2-0.
- Liverpool won the game after taking a record of 37 shots on target. They again outscored their opponents at xG (3.41 vs 0.72) and, despite dominating the game, they only won it after Nunez scored twice in extra time.
- Arsenal had a lower xG (1.55 vs 1.06) but had a few good chances to win it right at the end.
Next, Liverpool play at home against Ipswich, while Arsenal travel to Wolves. They both play at the same time.
Current odds: 91% Liverpool, 8% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.22 Liverpool, 6.50 Arsenal, 17 City.
Visualising the stats
I also made this tool to show the projected number of points based on the points per game (over the season/over the last 5 games):

How to read it: based on recent form, the top 3 performers are Palace, Newcastle and Forest; the top 3 under-performers are Tottenham, Chelsea and Leicester.
Also interesting this chart showing the remaining games for the top 5 teams:

Liverpool has difficult away games, but are expected to win most (if not all) of their home games. If they win their 9 home games and draw all the 8 away games, Liverpool finishes with 85 points which should be sufficient to win the title.
26 January, after game week 23

Liverpool win comfortably at home against Ipswich (4-1, 1.98-0.48), while Arsenal win 1-0 at Wolves (1.00-0.74). Two shocking referee decisions in the two games: Arsenal have a man incorreclty sent off at the end of first half, while Ipswich inexplicably avoid a red card for a horrible, horrible tackle against Endo. Ipswich then score a goal (remember, goal difference might be important in May), while Arsenal feel like they turned a corner.
Next, Liverpool play away at Bournemouth, while Arsenal host City. At the beginning of January, I predicted that Liverpool will lose points in two of the three games at Forest, Brentford and Bournemouth. I was right about Forest, almost right at Brentford, and now Bournemouth are looking very strong, winning 4-1 at Newcastle and 5-0 at home against Forest. In the end, a draw at Bournemouth wouldn’t be a bad result if Arsenal don’t win against City.
Current odds: 91% Liverpool, 8% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.22 Liverpool, 6 Arsenal, 17 City.
2 February, after game week 24

No changes at the top, as both Liverpool and Arsenal win what, on paper, looked like tricky games: Liverpool 2-0 at Bournemouth, and Arsenal 5-1 at home vs City. I was wrong about Liverpool dropping points in 2 out of the 4 last games (they only dropped points at Forest), but I got Arsenal right: they and Liverpool are the only two teams in the title race.
So Liverpool keep their 6 points advantage and could further increase it after they play their game in hand at Everton on 12 February. The next games until the end of February are:
- Liverpool: Wolves (H), City (A), Newcastle (H)
- Arsenal: Leicester (A), West Ham (H), Forest (A)
I fully expect Arsenal to make 9 points out of 9. Assuming they win their two home games, Liverpool must win one of the two tricky away games (at Everton and City) to maintain their 6 points cushion.
Current odds: 93% Liverpool, 7% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.22 Liverpool, 4.33 Arsenal, 101 City. Nothing changes for Liverpool, but Arsenal improve from 6 to 4.33 while City are out of the title race for the bookmakers (drop from 17 to 101).
Written by Dorin Moise (Published articles: 284)
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