Can Liverpool do it? (2025 pessimist edition)
Written on 7 January 2025, 11:32pm
We’re around the mid-season point in the Premier League, so it’s time for some predictions. First, a quick look back at the previous edition. One year ago I said:
I expect Arsenal to finish with close to 90 points, City 85+, and Liverpool at least 84. Their chances to overtake City and Arsenal will depend on a lot of factors, including the European competitions for all the 3 teams, injuries, fatigue or simply luck. Either way, I think it will be an exciting second half of the season and a memorable title race.
I got Arsenal absolutely right (they finished with 89 points), and City did finish with 85+ points (92). However, I did not expect City to improve that much in the second half of the season, nor Liverpool to drop out of the title race so early (they finished with 82 points, less than the 84+ predicted). No memorable title race, just City winning game after game and Arsenal getting agonisingly close (just as Liverpool did a couple of times in the recent seasons).
Now, time to look at this season. At the moment, the PL table looks like this:

The bookmakers give the following odds:

And putting this into percentages and forecast number of points:

My predictions
Man City (34p after 20 games, maximum possible 88): surely their drop of form won’t last for the whole season. Their second half of last season was almost perfect, with 16 wins, 2 draws and no defeats (2.77 points per game). Their first half of the season averaged 1.7 ppg, and for the second half, while I’m pretty sure they won’t reach 2.77 again, something around 2.5 ppg won’t be unreasonable. I expect a total of around 80 points (maximum possible 88) and to finish comfortably inside Top 4.
Forest (40p), Chelsea (36p) and Newcastle (35p) will likely fight for the 4th place, even though there’s a small chance there will be a CL prize for the 5th place as well. If I had to pick one, it would probably be Forest. Not only they are 4-5 points ahead of the two, but they have no European games (unlike Chelsea), no EFL games (unlike Newcastle), and no pressure (unlike both Chelsea and Newcastle). They are in a very good shape and I see them finishing with 75+ points. Of course, it could all collapse in a few games, and qualifying for CL might be a ‘careful what you wish for‘-situation, but what a story that might be!
So back to the title race now, which I expect to be an affair between Liverpool and Arsenal.
Arsenal (40p after 20 games, maximum possible 94) are top of the 2024 PL calendar year table with 85 points (from 36 games). They of course had an excellent second half of last season, with only one loss and one draw in the last 18 games. A similar return this season would see them finish with 89 points (the same as last season). I would not be surprised if this happens; even if you throw in a couple of more draws (so 14-3-1 instead of 16-1-1) and they would still reach 85 points.
Which leaves us with Liverpool, who have 46 points after 19 games (maximum possible 103p). Keep the same pace and they will finish with 92 points, which virtually guarantees them winning the league. Repeat the second half of last season (40p in 19 games) and they will finish with 86 points, which gets them into Arsenal’s territory. The bookmakers and stat guys say that the first scenario is much more likely: Liverpool are the big favourites this season.
They have, indeed, a 6 points advantage and a game in hand; yet, I don’t see them finishing top. Here’s why.
It might look all good from the outside, but Liverpool are quite fragile and everything could collapse in a few games, just as it did at the end of the last season. Here are some of the issues at the moment:
- the unwanted distraction of renewing the contracts of Salah, Virgil and Trent. The club should have planned in advance and avoided this situation. Among the three, I believe there’s only a small chance they will keep Virgil, but the whole situation is far from ideal and can have an impact on the pitch (as it recently happened with Trent in the 2-2 draw against Man United).
- the defensive situation. At the moment, Liverpool have Virgil (who could be gone in the summer), Konate and Gomez (who statistically miss a few months each season) and the young Quansah. Virgil and Konate are obviusly the first choice pairing, but, with Gomez out until February the options are very limited (yes, Endo can play in defence, but he is also expected to cover for Gravenberch).
- a smaller problem (which could turn into a bigger one) is the fullback situation. On the right, Trent had his head turned by Madrid and it starts to show, while Bradley has had very limited game time due to a long-term injury. On the left, Robertson is already showing his age, and Tsimikas doesn’t seem to offer enough to displace Robertson.
There’s no sign that any of the above problems have a short-term solution. On the contrary, things could get worse if Trent leaves at the end of January or any of the three players signs a pre-contract with another club.
On top of all that, I estimate that one or two key injuries could seriously derail Liverpool’s season. I’m talking about Virgil (see the 2020/21 season; Liverpool will play Everton at least twice by May), Gravenberch (who started almost every game until now) and Salah (who is simply irreplaceable at the moment). Even if these key players end the season uninjured, there is a correlation between the number of injuries and the number of dropped points.
And for good measure, all the 50-50 refereeing decisions are likely to go against Liverpool. Last season we witnessed some astonishing moments, culminating with a perfectly valid Liverpool goal incorrectly ruled out due to VAR miscommunication. As we saw in the case of David Coote, the PL referees do have biases, and, without getting into conspiracy theories, the scousers don’t seem to be anyone’s favourites.
All this to say – I am anticipating a scenario where the 6 points advantage gradually decreases and then goes away. After three seasons chasing (and narrowly missing) the title, I’m sure that Arsenal will be right there waiting.
In the next few weeks, Liverpool play 3 out of their 4 PL game away: Forest (3rd place), Brentford (11th), Bournemouth (7th). I anticipate them loosing points in at least two of these 4 games. Then, the last five games of the season look very difficult:

In conclusion, I expect:
- Arsenal to win the league with 85+ points
- Liverpool and City to finish with 80-85 points
- Forest to make it into Top 4 with around 75 points
PS: And of course, I expect Madrid to win the Champions League, but don’t we all do?
Written by Dorin Moise (Published articles: 284)
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