Mediocristan vs. Extremistan

• Mediocristan refers to domains where deviations are small and predictable (example: human height, weight).
• Extremistan refers to areas where a single event can have a massive impact (example: financial markets, wars, technological revolutions).

Most of modern life is influenced by Extremistan, meaning Black Swans are more common than we assume. Reminder, a Black Swan event:

• It is highly improbable.
• It has an extreme impact.
• It is unpredictable, but in hindsight, people try to rationalize it as if it was predictable.

Weak-link vs strong-link problems

Weak-link problems are problems where the overall quality depends on how good the worst stuff is. You fix weak-link problems by making the weakest links stronger, or by eliminating them entirely (example: food safety, nuclear proliferation, space missions safety, football).

In strong-link problems, the overall quality depends on how good the best stuff is, and the bad stuff barely matters (example: music, science, research, basketball).

Making the link

Weak-link problems are more likely to happen in Mediocristan:

• The system’s performance depends on improving the weakest part rather than relying on one exceptional element.
• Small, incremental improvements matter more than single outliers.
• Black Swans do not play a major role—consistency is more important.

Strong-link problems are more likely to happen in Extremistan:

• The system is shaped by a few extreme outliers rather than the overall average.
• A single individual or event can dominate and change everything (a few star investors, a group of scientists making a major breakthrough, etc).
• Black Swans are crucial—a breakthrough or disaster can redefine the entire landscape.

1. It’s increasingly difficult to get informed, but much easier to be fed narratives
2. The politicians are not supposed to be the story.

So, while this book is a love letter to the West, this chapter is a plea from the heart to journalists – please stop fucking with the media. It is not yours to co-opt or use to spread propaganda. You are merely stewards of the industry.

Konstantin Kisin: An Immigrant’s Love Letter to the West

Notice anything? 
Where’s the policy? Politicians are supposed to be vectors to solve our problems. They’re not supposed to be the story. We are supposed to be the story.

Brian Klaas. The Death of Serious Politics

The #yearly_roundup of things that I enjoyed this year.

1. Doing what I like. In 2023 I changed jobs. While remaining in the same field of IT security, the perspective, responsibilities and expectations changed. Combined with the working-from-home routine, it was a great year from a professional point of view.
2. Sticking to a healthy routine. Less active compared to 2022, but kept the wheels moving. Next year aiming for 500 hours of exercise time, 5 million steps and 4000 km covered distance.
3. Reading. Again a bit less than in 2022, but discovered a few good reads (Harry Potter among them ) and I enjoyed the new Kindle Scribe.
4. Refereeing football games. Loving it, looking forward for more in 2024.
5. The Worldle games (classic worldle, quordle, octordle, victordle, etc). Because sometimes you need to let your brain switch off.
6. Discovering the Loire Valley. One of the best holidays of the recent years. All thanks to my trusty 5 years old Tesla.
7. Two things that I am using for 16 hours every day: a Herman Miller Aeron chair and a Tempur mattress. None of them are cheap, but given how long I will use them I think they worth the investment.
8. The Titanium iPhone 15 Pro. For the first time since owning an iPhone, enjoying the case-less joy of using it.
9. A few series: Seinfeld, The Big Bang Theory, Young Sheldon. Some things will never change.
10. No longer wasting my time on Twitter (or whichever letter it becomes). I replaced it with a combination of Substack, Reddit and Quora, because one must still waste their time sometimes…

A missed opportunity for the MacBook Pro to make it to this list, mostly because of the Finder and keyboard issues. To be revisited at the end of 2024.