Written on **15 February 2014, 12:18am **

**Tagged with:** amazon, interview, logic, probabilities

From Stack Exchange:

• 50% of all people who receive a first interview receive a second interview

• 95% of your friends that got a second interview felt they had a good first interview

• 75% of your friends that DID NOT get a second interview felt they had a good first interview

If you feel that you had a good first interview, what is the probability you will receive a second interview?

The easiest way (at least for me) to go is to turn those percentages into some real numbers. For instance:

– 100 friends that got a second interview; 95 of them felt that they had a good first interview

– 100 friends that did NOT get a second interview; 75 of them felt that they had a good first interview.

Now, if you ignore the fact that it’s pretty difficult to have 200 friends (let alone the fact that they all applied for a job at Amazon 🙂 ), the numbers say that:

– 95 + 75 = 170 friends had a good feeling after the first interview

– but only 95 of them had a second interview

– so the probability of you having a second interview is 95 / 170 = **0.558**.

In other words, if you felt good after the first interview, you have more than 50% chances that you get a second interview.

Image: HollywoodReporter.com

Now, if you come up with the answer 55.8% to your Amazon interviewer, I think you would get some points. But not all of them. Because in the logic below there are 2 **hidden assumptions**:

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