With 9 games to go, Liverpool are top of the Premier League with a 15 points advantage:
Arsenal now have less than 1% chances, and the bookmakers offer 41 to 1 odds if you bet on Arsenal. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster though, just watch the fall from 3.75 on 19 February to 26 just one week later:
Liverpool navigated very well the fiery February, but, with two draws that felt like two losses (at Everton and Villa), they needed Arsenal to drop some points. Arsenal dropped more than expected, and now it’s simply a matter of time until Liverpool are crowned PL champions.
I wanted to find a scientific way to determine when this could happen. And the answer is this:
How to read it?
The chart says that the earliest that Liverpool can win the PL is in match day 32 (with a 15.3% chance), when they will play West Ham at home. The most likely is the next match day (Leicester away, 35.9%), and by the time they play Arsenal (MD 36), there is a 90% chance that the PL title is already won. Arsenal only have a 0.35% chance to win the PL (not shown in the chart).
How does it work?
I used the xG data from fbref.com, averaging the xG at home and away for every PL team. If we take the next Liverpool game, against Everton: Liverpool have a 2.18 average xG at home, while Everton have a 0.99 average xG away. I used a Poisson distribution function to turn these xG numbers into actual goals, and, ultimately, into winning percentages: 65% Liverpool win, 19% draw, 16% Everton. This is how it looks like:
I ran 100.000 simulations of the remaining PL games for both Liverpool and Arsenal and I came up with the percentages in the chart above. Interesting fact: running 10.000 simulations on an Intel Core i5 8th generation took about one minute. The same number of simulations on a MacBook M1 Pro took 13 seconds; so I could afford to run 100.000 simulations. However, running 10x more simulations did not change the data more than a rounding error, so for all intents and purposes, 10.000 simulations are sufficient.
More data
10 PL teams can no longer catch Liverpool. 2 more can follow if Liverpool win their next game against Everton at home, and another one (Bournemouth) if they don’t win their next game:
According to my simulations, 80 points are sufficient to win the PL in more than 80% of cases. So 10 more to go!
[continues from here] After making it into the EFL Cup final, here’s how February will look like for Liverpool:
Liverpool play their game in hand at Everton, then they play Villa in advance to accommodate the EFL Cup final in March. During this time, Arsenal have the luxury of enjoying a warm weather camp and will only play three games: Leicester (A), West Ham (H), Forest (A). The league table at the moment:
At the end of February, Liverpool will have played 28 games and Arsenal 27, so the game in hand changes hands 🙂
For Liverpool it looks like a good time to string 5 PL games together: it would continue the current momentum (3 PL wins since the draw at Forest plus the EFL semifinal win against Spurs) and Slot will benefit from having the full squad available (something that didn’t happen in recent history at this stage of the season). With the exception of Wolves, the opponents will not have more than one extra rest day:
Everton play Bournemouth at home before LFC (+1 rest day)
Wolves play Blackburn away (+3)
Villa play Ipswich at home (+1)
City play Real Madrid away (0)
Newcastle play Forest home (0)
This is a big opportunity for Liverpool to wrap things up in the league: if both Liverpool and Arsenal win their February games, Liverpool will be 12 points ahead with 10 games to play (11 for Arsenal). This would also free the schedule for March, where they would only play one PL game (home against Southampton) and the CL tie against PSG/Brest or Monaco/Benfica (on top of the internal cups: 16 EFL Cup final, 1 and 29 FA Cup). Fiery February could lead to Mellow March.
At the same, the three away fixtures are really difficult for Liverpool: for Everton it’ll be by far the most important game of their season (and the last Goodison derby), Villa will play under the floodlights without any CL worry and City… well, they are not in good place at the moment, but neither were United in January. It’s the kind of game where anything can happen. Despite the EFL Cup elimination, Arsenal will benefit from their warm weather camp (it certainly worked last season) and after the wins at Wolves and against City, they certainly have some momentum as well. Liverpool losing two-three of these games will give Arsenal a massive boost of confidence. Fiery February could also turn into Menacing March.
Prediction: I don’t expect more than 3 wins from the 5 games: the two home games and one of the away ones. Any additional draws will be welcome:
9 points – decent
10 points – good
11 points – very good
12-13 points – excellent
15 points – league over
11/15 points would be a very good return from this difficult run. Even if Arsenal win their 3 February games, Liverpool will still maintain an 8 points advantage (having played one game more).
More like these on Villa Park, please!
13 February, after game week 24
So, Liverpool played their game in hand against Everton and now, for a few days, all the teams have the same number of games (24). Liverpool now have a seven points lead, but the bookmakers reduced their chances of winning the league (1.28 from 1.22, while Arsenal changed from 4.33 to 4.00).
Everton away was always going to be one of the toughest remaining games, so I’m glad it’s all behind now, without any injury. But that was a very difficult game to watch, and the referee was terrible. Losing two points with the last kick of the game hurts, but, in fairness, Liverpool did not create enough chances (it is actually one of the few games this season when they ‘lost’ the xG score: 0.65 vs 0.98). I found it a bit strange that after they scored the second goal and they could finally play on their own terms, Liverpool failed to manage the game. For the third time this season (after Newcastle away and United at home), they conceded a late equalizer and I wonder why Slot did not introduce Endo (instead of Jota) – who has a very good record of ‘shielding’ the defense with a few minutes left to play.
Anyway, one down, four to go in the fiery February, and, with some tough games coming up, the margin of error becomes really small for Liverpool. Could be the post-game negativity, but I have this nagging feeling that if Liverpool somehow manages to win the league this season, it will only be because Arsenal will drop unexpected points. Momentum is not a myth, and at the moment, Arsenal have it. Last season Liverpool lost all the momentum after their FA Cup exit; I just hope this season won’t be the same.
Next, Arsenal play Leicester away and Liverpool play Wolves at home.
Liverpool have 4 more points compared to the same stage last season. Out of the 24 games, Liverpool played 11 at home and 13 away, and by the end of next week it will be 12 home and 15 away.
16 February, after game week 25
Fiery February continues. There is such a thing as momentum, and for me there’s no doubt that, at the moment, Arsenal have it. I said it before, Arsenal turned a corner in that game against Wolves, and their momentum continues despite their injuries up front. They have the best defense in the league and that’s very important in keeping them in the title race. Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself, but looking at their schedule, I don’t see any more games where they can drop points – except maybe on Anfield:
Liverpool play Wolves at home in a few hours, in something that looks like a massive banana peel for me. Last season everything collapsed after the FA Cup exit and a 2-2 away draw at one of their historical rivals (United then, Everton now). Hopefully the similarities stop here and Liverpool keep their 7 points advantage. They will need it: if Arsenal finish with 90 points (assuming a draw between Liverpool and Arsenal), then Liverpool can only afford to draw 3 or lose 2 games in the next 13 games.
Current odds: Liverpool 1.28, Arsenal 4.00.
Ugh, that was nervy. The game against Wolves was, indeed, a banana peel but this time Liverpool survived and held on to their 2-1 lead. It was only thanks to the heroics of Alisson and Quansah, and the smart (but obvious) choice to bring Endo on for the last 25 minutes. Liverpool won the xG score (1.76 vs 1.33) but did not register a shot in the second half and their defense looks more fragile lately (with Konate replaced at half time in order to avoid a second yellow). Quite a difference compared to Arsenal, and even Slot admitted that
“If you want to achieve something it is not only about bringing the ball out from the back or Mo scoring goals, it is also about defending.”
It would be a great time to record some clean sheets with games at Villa (a), City (a) and Newcastle (h) coming up.
Current odds: 1.25 (Liverpool) and 4.33 (Arsenal).
Plus, Liverpool has a slightly more difficult schedule:
I ran my own simulation (based on the calendar schedule). With a bit of optimism, I could see how Opta predicts Liverpool to end up with 87 points: 7 wins and 6 draws would do it. However I think they are underestimating Arsenal. Even if they lose on Anfield, and perhaps with one more draw along the way (so 11W 1D 1L), they would end up with same number of points as Liverpool (87, seven higher than the predicted 80). In case it gets to goal difference, Liverpool has +7 over Arsenal at the moment. With Arsenal having 4 more projected wins (11 vs 7), it’s likely they will overtake Liverpool on goal difference (especially with their last game being against Southampton).
19 February
Another 2-2 away, at Villa, this time after winning the xG score 2.40 vs 0.72. Hard to find reasons to be positive; Liverpool are sleepwalking into losing their advantage over Arsenal. Plenty of reasons for that, some anticipated (left back, injuries, refereeing), some others coming a bit unexpectedly (the defensive fragility or the inability to score in one-on-one situations).
It’s not over yet, but with 5 points out of possible 9 it doesn’t look good. At all. Liverpool need to find a way to win games like these, and they must find it soon: at the moment there is zero confidence that they can win away at City or, looking at the recent Anfield performance, at home against Newcastle. The injuries are mounting up (Gomez, Gakpo, Bradley), the defense looks like in the early (or late) seasons of Klopp and the strikers seem to find new ways to miss clear cut chances (sometimes with an open goal).
People say that it will come down to the Liverpool vs Arsenal game on Anfield. But the truth is, Arsenal might be already out of sight by then. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: “if Liverpool somehow manages to win the league this season, it will only be because Arsenal will drop unexpected points”.
Current odds: 1.30 for Liverpool, 3.75 for Arsenal. The fiery February continues.
Revised predictions:
5 games away: 4 draws, 1 win (maybe at Leicester or Fulham) – so 7 points
7 games at home: 4 wins 3 draws (Everton, Tottenham, Arsenal) – so 15 points.
This means Liverpool finishing the season with 83 points, most likely insufficient to win it:
23 February, after game week 26
This might be the weekend that swung the balance in Liverpool’s favour. Before the weekend, Arsenal could have the destiny in their own hands: with them and City both winning, the difference would be reduced from 8 to 5 points, with Arsenal having a game in hand. Winning that game in hand + the game on Anfield would have put them ahead. Lots of ifs, but the first part at least looked likely with Arsenal having a straightforward home game and Liverpool not winning at City for a decade.
What happened, instead, is that Arsenal unexpectedly lost and Liverpool won (quite comfortably, actually, while also keeping a clean sheet in the process). So now the difference is 11 points with 11 games to go. Indeed, Arsenal have a game in hand, but Liverpool will play 7 of the 11 games at home, and one of these 7 is against Arsenal.
Could be one of these seasons when lower eighties wins you the title?
The odds took a sharp turn: 1.05 (down from 1.30) for Liverpool, and 10 (up from 3.75) for Arsenal.
The Fiery February is not over though, with a midweek game against the only other team in the Top 7 who did not lose this weekend: Newcastle. Arsenal play at Forest, one of their most difficult remaining games except for the trip to Anfield.
27 February, after game week 27
The Fiery February is over … and it looks like the Premier League challenge is over as well. My prediction at the beginning of February was bang on:
Liverpool won exactly 11 out of the possible 15 points, which I considered as a ‘very good return’. What I did not anticipate, though, was that Arsenal will lose 5 points from their four February games. This means that Liverpool now have a very comfortable 13 points cushion (with Arsenal having one extra game to play):
8 teams can no longer catch Liverpool:
8 done, 11 to go
Great to see Liverpool keeping back to back clean sheets. Indeed, 2-0 seems to be the scoreline of champions:
It’s a scoreline that speaks of control, of winning games with a little to spare, taking freakish equalisers, ill luck and odd refereeing decisions out of the equation, without being flashy and demanding overexertion
Liverpool drew against Forest, one of the games I expected them to drop points (along with Brentford and Bournemouth). Arsenal took advantage and reduced the gap to 4 points. Good week for Newcastle too, while Chelsea and City both dropped points. A few notes:
not a bad result after all for Liverpool, but another problem starts to show up, this time up front. Diaz playing as striker doesn’t work, and it looks like when Mo is having an off day, Liverpool doesn’t win.
Quite an average night for Trent, and way below average for Robertson. Liverpool do have a full-backs issue at the moment. The sooner they figure it out, the better.
A few words about goalkeeping: Alisson conceded from a low quality chance (0.16xG – the only half-decent chance for the home team) – but perhaps this is just a sign of the ridiculously high standards he got us used to. The Forest keeper, on the other hand, had a great night, saving a few clear cut chances. And Arsenal benefitted from a less than mediocre performance of the Spurs keeper.
Next game becomes really important for Liverpool (4 draws in the last 7 PL games): another away game at Brentford, who have impressive numbers when playing at home (7 wins 2 draws 2 losses this season). I expect a tight game but perhaps the Liverpool forwards will find their shooting boots this time and at least match the expected goals (1.99 at Forest). Arsenal play at home against Villa, their only defeat in the second half of last season.
This feels like a massive moment in the season for Liverpool: they win in extra time at Brentford, and a couple of hours later, Arsenal drop points at home against Villa, after leading 2-0.
Liverpool won the game after taking a record of 37 shots on target. They again outscored their opponents at xG (3.41 vs 0.72) and, despite dominating the game, they only won it after Nunez scored twice in extra time.
Arsenal had a lower xG (1.55 vs 1.06) but had a few good chances to win it right at the end.
Next, Liverpool play at home against Ipswich, while Arsenal travel to Wolves. They both play at the same time.
I also made this tool to show the projected number of points based on the points per game (over the season/over the last 5 games):
How to read it: based on recent form, the top 3 performers are Palace, Newcastle and Forest; the top 3 under-performers are Tottenham, Chelsea and Leicester.
Also interesting this chart showing the remaining games for the top 5 teams:
Liverpool has difficult away games, but are expected to win most (if not all) of their home games. If they win their 9 home games and draw all the 8 away games, Liverpool finishes with 85 points which should be sufficient to win the title.
26 January, after game week 23
Liverpool win comfortably at home against Ipswich (4-1, 1.98-0.48), while Arsenal win 1-0 at Wolves (1.00-0.74). Two shocking referee decisions in the two games: Arsenal have a man incorreclty sent off at the end of first half, while Ipswich inexplicably avoid a red card for a horrible, horrible tackle against Endo. Ipswich then score a goal (remember, goal difference might be important in May), while Arsenal feel like they turned a corner.
Next, Liverpool play away at Bournemouth, while Arsenal host City. At the beginning of January, I predicted that Liverpool will lose points in two of the three games at Forest, Brentford and Bournemouth. I was right about Forest, almost right at Brentford, and now Bournemouth are looking very strong, winning 4-1 at Newcastle and 5-0 at home against Forest. In the end, a draw at Bournemouth wouldn’t be a bad result if Arsenal don’t win against City.
No changes at the top, as both Liverpool and Arsenal win what, on paper, looked like tricky games: Liverpool 2-0 at Bournemouth, and Arsenal 5-1 at home vs City. I was wrong about Liverpool dropping points in 2 out of the 4 last games (they only dropped points at Forest), but I got Arsenal right: they and Liverpool are the only two teams in the title race.
So Liverpool keep their 6 points advantage and could further increase it after they play their game in hand at Everton on 12 February. The next games until the end of February are:
Liverpool: Wolves (H), City (A), Newcastle (H)
Arsenal: Leicester (A), West Ham (H), Forest (A)
I fully expect Arsenal to make 9 points out of 9. Assuming they win their two home games, Liverpool must win one of the two tricky away games (at Everton and City) to maintain their 6 points cushion.
Current odds: 93% Liverpool, 7% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.22 Liverpool, 4.33 Arsenal, 101 City. Nothing changes for Liverpool, but Arsenal improve from 6 to 4.33 while City are out of the title race for the bookmakers (drop from 17 to 101).
