On the 10th of January, I made my predictions for the 2025 Premier League season: https://colorblindprogramming.com/can-liverpool-do-it-2025-edition. I plan to follow up on that prediction after each round of games.

16 January, after game week 21

Liverpool drew against Forest, one of the games I expected them to drop points (along with Brentford and Bournemouth). Arsenal took advantage and reduced the gap to 4 points. Good week for Newcastle too, while Chelsea and City both dropped points. A few notes:

• not a bad result after all for Liverpool, but another problem starts to show up, this time up front. Diaz playing as striker doesn’t work, and it looks like when Mo is having an off day, Liverpool doesn’t win.
• Quite an average night for Trent, and way below average for Robertson. Liverpool do have a full-backs issue at the moment. The sooner they figure it out, the better.
• A few words about goalkeeping: Alisson conceded from a low quality chance (0.16xG – the only half-decent chance for the home team) – but perhaps this is just a sign of the ridiculously high standards he got us used to. The Forest keeper, on the other hand, had a great night, saving a few clear cut chances. And Arsenal benefitted from a less than mediocre performance of the Spurs keeper.

Next game becomes really important for Liverpool (4 draws in the last 7 PL games): another away game at Brentford, who have impressive numbers when playing at home (7 wins 2 draws 2 losses this season). I expect a tight game but perhaps the Liverpool forwards will find their shooting boots this time and at least match the expected goals (1.99 at Forest). Arsenal play at home against Villa, their only defeat in the second half of last season.

Current odds: 83% Liverpool, 16% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.36 Liverpool, 4.33 Arsenal.

18 January, after game week 22

This feels like a massive moment in the season for Liverpool: they win in extra time at Brentford, and a couple of hours later, Arsenal drop points at home against Villa, after leading 2-0.

• Liverpool won the game after taking a record of 37 shots on target. They again outscored their opponents at xG (3.41 vs 0.72) and, despite dominating the game, they only won it after Nunez scored twice in extra time.
• Arsenal had a lower xG (1.55 vs 1.06) but had a few good chances to win it right at the end.

Next, Liverpool play at home against Ipswich, while Arsenal travel to Wolves. They both play at the same time.

Current odds: 91% Liverpool, 8% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.22 Liverpool, 6.50 Arsenal, 17 City.

Visualising the stats

I also made this tool to show the projected number of points based on the points per game (over the season/over the last 5 games):

How to read it: based on recent form, the top 3 performers are Palace, Newcastle and Forest; the top 3 under-performers are Tottenham, Chelsea and Leicester.

Also interesting this chart showing the remaining games for the top 5 teams:

Liverpool has difficult away games, but are expected to win most (if not all) of their home games. If they win their 9 home games and draw all the 8 away games, Liverpool finishes with 85 points which should be sufficient to win the title.

26 January, after game week 23

Liverpool win comfortably at home against Ipswich (4-1, 1.98-0.48), while Arsenal win 1-0 at Wolves (1.00-0.74). Two shocking referee decisions in the two games: Arsenal have a man incorreclty sent off at the end of first half, while Ipswich inexplicably avoid a red card for a horrible, horrible tackle against Endo. Ipswich then score a goal (remember, goal difference might be important in May), while Arsenal feel like they turned a corner.

Next, Liverpool play away at Bournemouth, while Arsenal host City. At the beginning of January, I predicted that Liverpool will lose points in two of the three games at Forest, Brentford and Bournemouth. I was right about Forest, almost right at Brentford, and now Bournemouth are looking very strong, winning 4-1 at Newcastle and 5-0 at home against Forest. In the end, a draw at Bournemouth wouldn’t be a bad result if Arsenal don’t win against City.

Current odds: 91% Liverpool, 8% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.22 Liverpool, 6 Arsenal, 17 City.

2 February, after game week 24

No changes at the top, as both Liverpool and Arsenal win what, on paper, looked like tricky games: Liverpool 2-0 at Bournemouth, and Arsenal 5-1 at home vs City. I was wrong about Liverpool dropping points in 2 out of the 4 last games (they only dropped points at Forest), but I got Arsenal right: they and Liverpool are the only two teams in the title race.

So Liverpool keep their 6 points advantage and could further increase it after they play their game in hand at Everton on 12 February. The next games until the end of February are:

• Liverpool: Wolves (H), City (A), Newcastle (H)
• Arsenal: Leicester (A), West Ham (H), Forest (A)

I fully expect Arsenal to make 9 points out of 9. Assuming they win their two home games, Liverpool must win one of the two tricky away games (at Everton and City) to maintain their 6 points cushion.

Current odds: 93% Liverpool, 7% Arsenal. Bookmakers: 1.22 Liverpool, 4.33 Arsenal, 101 City. Nothing changes for Liverpool, but Arsenal improve from 6 to 4.33 while City are out of the title race for the bookmakers (drop from 17 to 101).

We’re around the mid-season point in the Premier League, so it’s time for some predictions. First, a quick look back at the previous edition. One year ago I said:

I expect Arsenal to finish with close to 90 points, City 85+, and Liverpool at least 84. Their chances to overtake City and Arsenal will depend on a lot of factors, including the European competitions for all the 3 teams, injuries, fatigue or simply luck. Either way, I think it will be an exciting second half of the season and a memorable title race.

I got Arsenal absolutely right (they finished with 89 points), and City did finish with 85+ points (92). However, I did not expect City to improve that much in the second half of the season, nor Liverpool to drop out of the title race so early (they finished with 82 points, less than the 84+ predicted). No memorable title race, just City winning game after game and Arsenal getting agonisingly close (just as Liverpool did a couple of times in the recent seasons).

Now, time to look at this season. At the moment, the PL table looks like this:

The bookmakers give the following odds:

And putting this into percentages and forecast number of points:

My predictions

Man City (34p after 20 games, maximum possible 88): surely their drop of form won’t last for the whole season. Their second half of last season was almost perfect, with 16 wins, 2 draws and no defeats (2.77 points per game). Their first half of the season averaged 1.7 ppg, and for the second half, while I’m pretty sure they won’t reach 2.77 again, something around 2.5 ppg won’t be unreasonable. I expect a total of around 80 points (maximum possible 88) and to finish comfortably inside Top 4.

Forest (40p), Chelsea (36p) and Newcastle (35p) will likely fight for the 4th place, even though there’s a small chance there will be a CL prize for the 5th place as well. If I had to pick one, it would probably be Forest. Not only they are 4-5 points ahead of the two, but they have no European games (unlike Chelsea), no EFL games (unlike Newcastle), and no pressure (unlike both Chelsea and Newcastle). They are in a very good shape and I see them finishing with 75+ points. Of course, it could all collapse in a few games, and qualifying for CL might be a ‘careful what you wish for‘-situation, but what a story that might be!

So back to the title race now, which I expect to be an affair between Liverpool and Arsenal.

Arsenal (40p after 20 games, maximum possible 94) are top of the 2024 PL calendar year table with 85 points (from 36 games). They of course had an excellent second half of last season, with only one loss and one draw in the last 18 games. A similar return this season would see them finish with 89 points (the same as last season). I would not be surprised if this happens; even if you throw in a couple of more draws (so 14-3-1 instead of 16-1-1) and they would still reach 85 points.

Which leaves us with Liverpool, who have 46 points after 19 games (maximum possible 103p). Keep the same pace and they will finish with 92 points, which virtually guarantees them winning the league. Repeat the second half of last season (40p in 19 games) and they will finish with 86 points, which gets them into Arsenal’s territory. The bookmakers and stat guys say that the first scenario is much more likely: Liverpool are the big favourites this season.

They have, indeed, a 6 points advantage and a game in hand; yet, I don’t see them finishing top. Here’s why.

It might look all good from the outside, but Liverpool are quite fragile and everything could collapse in a few games, just as it did at the end of the last season. Here are some of the issues at the moment:

• the unwanted distraction of renewing the contracts of Salah, Virgil and Trent. The club should have planned in advance and avoided this situation. Among the three, I believe there’s only a small chance they will keep Virgil, but the whole situation is far from ideal and can have an impact on the pitch (as it recently happened with Trent in the 2-2 draw against Man United).

• the defensive situation. At the moment, Liverpool have Virgil (who could be gone in the summer), Konate and Gomez (who statistically miss a few months each season) and the young Quansah. Virgil and Konate are obviusly the first choice pairing, but, with Gomez out until February the options are very limited (yes, Endo can play in defence, but he is also expected to cover for Gravenberch).

• a smaller problem (which could turn into a bigger one) is the fullback situation. On the right, Trent had his head turned by Madrid and it starts to show, while Bradley has had very limited game time due to a long-term injury. On the left, Robertson is already showing his age, and Tsimikas doesn’t seem to offer enough to displace Robertson.

There’s no sign that any of the above problems have a short-term solution. On the contrary, things could get worse if Trent leaves at the end of January or any of the three players signs a pre-contract with another club.

On top of all that, I estimate that one or two key injuries could seriously derail Liverpool’s season. I’m talking about Virgil (see the 2020/21 season; Liverpool will play Everton at least twice by May), Gravenberch (who started almost every game until now) and Salah (who is simply irreplaceable at the moment). Even if these key players end the season uninjured, there is a correlation between the number of injuries and the number of dropped points.

And for good measure, all the 50-50 refereeing decisions are likely to go against Liverpool. Last season we witnessed some astonishing moments, culminating with a perfectly valid Liverpool goal incorrectly ruled out due to VAR miscommunication. As we saw in the case of David Coote, the PL referees do have biases, and, without getting into conspiracy theories, the scousers don’t seem to be anyone’s favourites.

All this to say – I am anticipating a scenario where the 6 points advantage gradually decreases and then goes away. After three seasons chasing (and narrowly missing) the title, I’m sure that Arsenal will be right there waiting.

In the next few weeks, Liverpool play 3 out of their 4 PL game away: Forest (3rd place), Brentford (11th), Bournemouth (7th). I anticipate them loosing points in at least two of these 4 games. Then, the last five games of the season look very difficult:

In conclusion, I expect:

• Arsenal to win the league with 85+ points
• Liverpool and City to finish with 80-85 points
• Forest to make it into Top 4 with around 75 points

PS: And of course, I expect Madrid to win the Champions League, but don’t we all do?

The #yearly_roundup of things that I enjoyed in 2024 is not too different from the previous one. In fact, looking back at the yearly roundups since 2017 I see some recurring themes: reading, work, football, traveling, health, a few TV series/games, maybe a device or a service that really brought me joy. So this time I’ll try to skip those and focus only on the things that stood up in 2024.

1. Learning how to swim. Perhaps swimming it’s too much, and ‘advancing in water one lap at a time without fear of drowning’ would be a more accurate representation of what I’m doing. Either way, according to my Apple Watch, I had 64 swimming sessions in 2024, covering over 32 kilometres. I call that a win.
2. Spending more time and energy on my kids growth. I even came up with a framework covering what they should know by the time they leave home. There’s a fine line though between helping them and overdoing things. Also a lot of frustrations along the way, but definitely worth the time.
3. Finding joy in little things. That colour-changing, ambient light lamp. A scented candle. The digital frame reminding you about a random photo you took years ago. Having an unscheduled beer with the neighbour while chatting about your day. The first warm days of the year. The nice wallpapers. Magnets. The scent of the garden leaves in September. That puzzle game with your kids.
   Sometimes you need to actively look for thin slices of joy.
4. Biking. Spending less time in traffic while also doing a good workout? I’m up for it (except when it’s freezing outside, because I don’t enjoy the cold).
5. The law of unintended consequences. “People respond to incentives, although not necessarily in ways that are predictable. Therefore, one of the most powerful laws in the universe is the law of unintended consequences.” source: the Freakonomics guys
6. Data science and data visualisation.

Yearly stats 2024:

• 10.300 pages read (up from 7100)
• 33 books read (up from 17)
• 5.10m steps (down from 5.19)
• 498 exercise hours (up from 459)
• 3870 kms covered (down from 3916)
• 259 Mcal energy burned (up from 246)
• 7h 52m slept on average (up from 7h 49m)

Until the next time 👋